中国林业经济

科学确定人工林最优轮伐期并评估其投资风险,对于提升林业经营效益、保障投资安全具有重要意义。以广西国有东门林场大花序桉人工林为案例,旨在探究人工林经济成熟规律及投资效益对关键因素的敏感性。运用现金流量分析法,构建基于Faustmann模型的全生命周期评价框架,采用净现值(NPV)、内部收益率(IRR)等动态指标与投资利润率等静态指标相结合的综合评价体系;并通过单因素敏感性分析,识别关键风险因素。敏感性分析表明,木材价格是影响投资效益最敏感的因素,其次为单位出材量和投资成本。培育大径材是提升人工林经营效益的有效途径。人工林投资需重点关注市场风险,建议采取优化经营策略、发展林下经济及建立风险补偿机制等措施以提升项目抗风险能力。研究结果可为人工林经营者的投资决策与风险管理提供理论依据和方法参考。

Determining the optimal rotation period and assessing investment risks are crucial for enhancing the profitability and ensuring the security of plantation investments.Taking a Eucalyptus cloeziana plantation in Guangxi State-Owned Dongmen Forest Farm,we explored the economic maturity of plantations and the sensitivity of investment returns to key factors.Utilizing cash flow analysis,a full-life-cycle evaluation framework based on the Faustmann model was constructed.A comprehensive evaluation system combining dynamic indicators such as Net Present Value(NPV)and Internal Rate of Return(IRR) with static indicators like investment profit rate was employed.Sensitivity analysis revealed that timber price was the most sensitive factor affecting investment returns,followed by unit output and investment cost.Cultivating large-diameter timber is an effective way to enhance plantation management benefits.Plantation investments require close attention to market risks.It is recommended to adopt measures such as optimizing management strategies,developing understory economy,and establishing risk compensation mechanisms to improve project risk resilience.The findings provide a theoretical basis and methodological reference for plantation investors' decision-making and risk management.